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Predictions. They’re a mug’s game.
The most revered pollster in US politics, Nate Silver, gave Hillary Clinton an 85% chance of winning the presidency in 2016.
That same year, Leicester City had been given odds of 5,000/1 to lift the Premier League. Relegation under Ranieri was seen as nigh-on odds-on.
And the less said about the forecasts before the Brexit referendum, the better.
While it may be less headline-grabbing, the meteorologists’ predictions on the prospects of play for the Metro Bank One Day Cup Final proved similarly wide of the mark.
Following last year’s Trent Bridge showpiece, which was completed on the reserve day, jokes about this fixture being officially renamed the Two Day Cup Final were somewhat commonplace.
And even after 90 minutes of uninterrupted play, the first sign of rain at 12.30pm seemed a suspiciously bad omen.
Worcestershire Rapids, having won the toss, invited Hampshire to bat first, leaving the South Coast side to contend with two rain delays in a stop-start first innings.
But Ali Orr rose above it all.
In a competition which has allowed young talent to flourish, the 22-year-old was serene, compiling a third century of the summer.
And while he found little significant support after his fellow opener Nick Gubbins departed, Hampshire’s 237/7 from 45 overs felt competitive.
A 45-over chase would not materialise – those weather forecasters weren’t entirely wrong – with the Rapids requiring 188 from 27 overs once play resumed following a third delay.
And the conditions had lent a slightly comedic air to proceedings: from play being paused to conceal the hover cover behind a sightscreen, to a slapstick slip by a fielder in the covers looking to take a catch, to a sweetly-struck straight drive being stopped firmly in its tracks by a pile of sawdust on the edge of the circle.
But there was quality too; a measured contribution from Rapids captain Jake Libby, 37 at almost a run a ball in the format where he now holds one of the highest averages of all time.
Libby’s departure, with Worcestershire still 81 short, seemed to deal a fatal blow to the Rapids’ chances.
But it merely freed up Ethan Brookes to attack with aplomb.
A six behind square here, a snick past the wicketkeeper there, and Worcestershire’s number five was striking at 150.
It left a tantalising finale – 49 were needed from the last 30 balls, with the Rapids suddenly progressing at more than two a ball.
The overs ebbed and flowed – three runs from the 23rd, eight from the 24th, before two almighty swipes over square leg in the 25th from Brookes brought the Pears firmly back into the contest.
From the final 12, 21 were needed – but the trophy’s destiny remained in doubt.
Brookes departed for an electrifying 57 from 34: advantage Hampshire. Matthew Waite strolled to the crease and promptly smashed his first ball for six: momentum with the Rapids.
Rob Jones holed out with seven balls to go: the contest on a knife-edge.
The final over began with a battle between Brad Wheal and Waite. Hampshire’s Wheal restricted Worcestershire’s Waite to two runs from the first ball of the second over.
The second, in altogether more pyrotechnic fashion and prompting an explosion of joy from the Rapids' support, was pulled behind square for perhaps the most crucial six of the match - but then came the most heart-stopping drama of all.
Number nine Henry Cullen, on strike for the first time in the contest, hooked his first ball over deep backward square, where veteran Kyle Abbott steadied himself in wait on the boundary's edge.
Abbott plucked the ball from the skies, fell back towards the rope and spilt the ball to avoid conceding a six - or so he believed. His calculations were a millisecond out.
The ball grazed his arm as he fell to the turf, gifting the Rapids four runs and, with it, the trophy.
After a day where forecasts of weather-related doom and gloom were somewhat wide of the mark, it felt fitting that the game remained impossible to call to the very last.
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